Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-4
- Alek ManoahPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiermaier scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 9Bichette walked, Kirk scored, Springer to second, Kiermaier to third.2–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 42–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Arozarena singled to center, Franco scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Margot grounded out to first, Raley scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Walls scored on throwing error by catcher Kirk, Raley stole third.1–4
- 3Walls stole third, Raley stole second. Walls scored, Raley to third on throwing error by catcher Kirk.1–4
- 3Walls scored on throwing error by catcher Kirk, Raley stole third.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2J. Lowe doubled to left, Raley scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arozarena scored, B. Lowe out at second.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Arozarena singled to left, Franco scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Belt singled to left, Varsho scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +70 Elo | TB 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 23–51st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.