Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Franco singled to center, Siri scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Siri singled to right, Raley scored, Bethancourt thrown out at third.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Springer grounded out to second, Lukes scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Biggio homered to right center (422 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Franco singled to center, Margot scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Margot tripled to right, Bethancourt scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Bichette scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Siri homered to left center (426 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Raley homered to right (407 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Paredes singled to left, Franco scored, Arozarena to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- TOR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +64 Elo | TB 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.92nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 22–51st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.