Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Twins- Kyle GarlickBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Garlick doubled to left, Kirilloff scored, Julien to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Bichette homered to center (424 feet), Springer scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Kiermaier homered to right (400 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- TOR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −8 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 15–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.