Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-5, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Biggio singled to right, Merrifield scored, Kirk to second.2–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 2Belt singled to right, Biggio scored, Bichette to third.2–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 2Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kirk scored, Springer out at second, Biggio to third.2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 1Merrifield doubled to left, Chapman scored and Belt scored.2–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Chapman singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Belt to second.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Springer scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Contreras homered to right center (383 feet), Miller scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -110
- MIL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −3 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 13–97th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.