Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-2
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette singled to left, Springer scored on fielding error by center fielder Castro, Bichette to second.3–0
- 8Bichette singled to left, Springer scored on fielding error by center fielder Castro, Bichette to second.3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Kirk singled to left, Chapman scored and Varsho scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- TOR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 16–116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.