Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Anderson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tellez scored, Contreras out at second.1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Chapman homered to right (366 feet), Varsho scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Bichette homered to center (414 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- MIL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | −1 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 1.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +59 Elo | TOR 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 14–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.