Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jose BarreroBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Raimel TapiaBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored, Reyes to third.9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 9Yoshida doubled to center, Devers scored, Turner to third.9–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 9Turner singled to right, Tapia scored, Devers to second.9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 9Devers singled to center, McGuire scored, Tapia to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 9Tapia singled to right, Valdez scored, McGuire to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 8Steer hit sacrifice fly to left, Stephenson scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Devers singled to right, Tapia scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Tapia tripled to right, McGuire scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7McGuire doubled to center, Valdez scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Barrero homered to left (421 feet), Newman scored, Benson scored and Fairchild scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Fairchild walked, Steer scored, Benson to second, Newman to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 44–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -117
- CIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +41 Elo | BOS 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 15–119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.