Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner homered to left (418 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Verdugo singled to left, Casas scored, Reyes to second, Hernández to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Perdomo homered to right center (378 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Rojas singled to left, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Carroll homered to left center (392 feet), Marte scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -113
- BOS +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +36 Elo | ARI 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 14–1216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.