Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo scored on error, Marte safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Clemens.6–3
- 9Perdomo scored on error, Marte safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Clemens.6–3
- 9Perdomo scored on error, Marte safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Clemens.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Gurriel Jr. doubled to right, Walker scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Turner singled to right, Stott scored, Clemens to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Smith homered to right (400 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Stott homered to right center (387 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Schwarber homered to right (377 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Perdomo doubled to right, Rojas scored and Fletcher scored, Moreno to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (413 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +11 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.