Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guthrie walked, Stubbs scored on Burdi wild pitch.3–12
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 43–12
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 8Morel homered to center (406 feet).3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–11
- 7Harrison hit sacrifice fly to right, Sosa scored.2–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 6Swanson homered to left center (399 feet), Morel scored.2–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 5Harper doubled to right, Sosa scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 5Stott grounded out to second, Clemens scored, Sosa to second.0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 3Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- CHC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −2 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–13 | Road vs home | 11–811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.