Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel homered to left center (371 feet), Mervis scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 5Hoerner doubled to right, Madrigal scored and Morel scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Morel reached on infield single to shortstop, Mastrobuoni scored on error, Morel safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Turner.6–1
- 5Mastrobuoni scored on error, Morel safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Turner, Morel safe at second on error.6–1
- 5Mastrobuoni scored on error, Morel safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Turner, Morel safe at second on error.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Gomes hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored, Mastrobuoni to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Hoerner doubled to left, Madrigal scored and Morel scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Madrigal singled to center, Gomes scored and Mancini scored, Morel to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Stott scored, Harper to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -112
- CHC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 11–79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.