Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel homered to right (356 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 7Stott homered to right (357 feet), Sosa scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -110
- CHC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +2 Elo | CHC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–14 | Road vs home | 12–89th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.