Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bohm singled to right, Guthrie scored, Clemens to second, Schwarber to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Turner homered to left center (404 feet), Stott scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Marsh singled to left, Clemens scored and Bohm scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Bohm singled to center, Harper scored. Clemens to third, Bohm to second on throwing error by center fielder Fletcher.5–1
- 6Bohm singled to center, Harper scored on error, Bohm safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Fletcher, Clemens safe at third on error.5–1
- 6Bohm singled to center, Harper scored on error, Bohm safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Fletcher, Clemens safe at third on error.5–1
- 6Bohm singled to center, Harper scored on error, Bohm safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Fletcher, Clemens safe at third on error.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Longoria homered to left (422 feet), Rivera scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Rivera doubled to center, Carroll scored and Herrera scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Rivera grounded out to third, Marte scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 46%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −16 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +29 Elo | ARI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 13–1014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.