Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Dylan CoveyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Bohm singled to center, Castellanos scored, Clemens to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Clemens grounded into fielder's choice to second, Harper scored, Realmuto out at second, Castellanos to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Marte tripled to right, Perdomo scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Clemens doubled to left, Realmuto scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Moreno homered to left center (417 feet), Longoria scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −12 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI 0 Elo | PHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 13–97th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.