Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moniak homered to right (401 feet).1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Yoshida singled to right, Wong scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Rengifo grounded out to first, Drury scored, Thaiss to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.1 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −8 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Jaime Barria (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +10 Elo | LAA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.