Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Refsnyder singled to center, Wong scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Wong homered to center (396 feet).2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Trout homered to left center (396 feet), Neto scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Hernández doubled to left, Yoshida scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Ohtani homered to left center (398 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 2Neto homered to center (392 feet), Drury scored and Wallach scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Urshela hit sacrifice fly to center, Renfroe scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- BOS +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −5 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +10 Elo | LAA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 14–109th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.