Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-2
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trout homered to right center (393 feet), Ward scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Thaiss homered to center (409 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Moniak homered to center (418 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.9 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +8 Elo | LAA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 13–1013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.