Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-3
- Garrett WhitlockPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4McGuire sacrificed to pitcher, Casas scored, Reyes to second, Hernández to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Hernández singled to left, Yoshida scored, Casas to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Marte homered to right (382 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- BOS +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 14–1113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.