Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Enrique HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Emmanuel RiveraBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rivera reached on infield single to shortstop, Herrera scored, Marte to second.7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Verdugo singled to left, Wong scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Turner singled to center, Verdugo scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. tripled to center, Rivera scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Hernández homered to left center (431 feet), Casas scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Tapia singled to right, Wong scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Wong hit a ground rule double, Casas scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Casas doubled to right, Refsnyder scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -113
- BOS +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +11 Elo | ARI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 14–106th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.