Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wisdom homered to left (371 feet), Mancini scored.8–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 38–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Senzel doubled to left, Friedl scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Steer homered to left center (364 feet), India scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Newman walked, Stephenson scored, Senzel to second, Friedl to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 13 : Ball 45–3
- 5Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Friedl doubled to right, McLain scored, Stephenson to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3McLain doubled to left, India scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Wisdom homered to left center (424 feet), Suzuki scored and Tauchman scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -113
- CIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +11 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.