New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor singled to left, Nimmo scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 8Nimmo tripled to center, Vogelbach scored and Álvarez scored.9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 7Alonso homered to right (372 feet), McNeil scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5McNeil scored on throwing error by catcher Gomes, Alonso stole second.5–1
- 5McNeil scored on throwing error by catcher Gomes, Alonso stole second.5–1
- 5McNeil scored on throwing error by catcher Gomes, Alonso stole second.5–1
- 3Marte singled to right, Alonso scored and Baty scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Baty singled to right, McNeil scored on error, Baty safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki, Alonso safe at third on error.2–1
- 3Baty singled to right, McNeil scored on error, Baty safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki, Alonso safe at third on error.2–1
- 3Baty singled to right, McNeil scored on error, Baty safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki, Alonso safe at third on error.2–1
- 3Baty singled to right, McNeil scored on error, Baty safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki, Alonso safe at third on error.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Swanson homered to left center (389 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Baty hit sacrifice fly to center, Nimmo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −15 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +34 Elo | CHC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.