New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hoerner homered to left center (376 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Tauchman singled to left, Suzuki scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Suzuki doubled to left, Swanson scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Swanson doubled to right, Hoerner scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Álvarez homered to center (390 feet), Canha scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -108
- NYM +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +18 Elo | CHC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 12–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.