New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Matt MervisBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Morel homered to left center (383 feet).2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Alonso grounded into fielder's choice to third, Nimmo scored, Lindor to second, Escobar out at third.2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Swanson singled to right, Mervis scored, Hoerner to second.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Mervis singled to right, Tauchman scored, Mervis to second.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Alonso homered to center (434 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Mervis homered to center (395 feet), Gomes scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Gomes reached on infield single to third, Morel scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Suzuki homered to center (414 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Fair odds
- CHC -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.