Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-3
- Justin SteelePitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Casali singled to right, Fairchild scored and Barrero scored.9–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Newman doubled to left, Fairchild scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Stephenson singled to center, Casali scored, Steer to third.6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 4India hit sacrifice fly to right, Barrero scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Barrero singled to left, Newman scored, Barrero to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Senzel singled to center, Stephenson scored, Senzel safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Tauchman.3–0
- 3Senzel singled to center, Stephenson scored on error, Senzel safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Tauchman.3–0
- 3Senzel singled to center, Stephenson scored on error, Senzel safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Tauchman.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Stephenson singled to left, Steer scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Steer tripled to right, McLain scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 13–1220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–1 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.