Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Happ hit sacrifice fly to right, Tauchman scored.8–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7India homered to left center (388 feet), McLain scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Casali singled to left, Steer scored, Fairchild to second.6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5India homered to right (361 feet), McLain scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5McLain singled to right, Friedl scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3India singled to left, Friedl scored, India out stretching at second.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Swanson singled to left, Wisdom scored and Hoerner scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Hoerner singled to right, Gomes scored, Hoerner to second, Wisdom to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Senzel singled to center, Stephenson scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Happ hit a ground rule double, Swanson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −30 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 1.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–1 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.