Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching4.0 IP, 10 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hopkins walked, Steer scored, Benson to second, Senzel to third.10–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 410–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 310–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging10–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–7
- 9Steer singled to left, Fraley scored.10–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 6India singled to center, Casali scored and McLain scored.10–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 210–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–4
- 6Newman hit sacrifice fly to right, Fairchild scored, Benson to third.10–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 210–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 4Contreras homered to center (409 feet).10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 3Fraley homered to right center (391 feet).9–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 19–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 3India grounded out to shortstop, McLain scored.9–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 3Perkins homered to right (347 feet), Anderson scored, Singleton scored and Wiemer scored.9–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Wiemer walked, Contreras scored, Singleton to second, Anderson to third.5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 45–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −14 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 14–1524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.