Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Casali doubled to center, Stephenson scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 11Turang grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Monasterio scored, Caratini out at second.5–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 11Caratini grounded into fielder's choice to second, Anderson scored, Wiemer out at second, Monasterio to third.4–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Caratini grounded out to first, Yelich scored, Wiemer to second, Monasterio to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3India homered to right center (370 feet), Maile scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Senzel grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fraley scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Wiemer homered to left center (432 feet), Yelich scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 14–1421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.