Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran doubled to left, Yoshida scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Steer homered to left center (382 feet), Newman scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7India grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Benson scored, McLain out at second, Newman to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Senzel singled to center, India scored, Steer to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Valdez homered to left center (356 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Maile doubled to center, Barrero scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Devers doubled to left, Wong scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Yoshida homered to right (359 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +31 Elo | BOS 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 15–1212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.