Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Kevin NewmanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Enrique HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wong homered to left center (401 feet), Hernández scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Hernández singled to right, Yoshida scored and Duran scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Tapia scored on a balk, Duran to second on a balk, Yoshida to third on a balk.2–4
- 8Tapia scored on a balk, Duran to second on a balk, Yoshida to third on a balk.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Devers doubled to center, Verdugo scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8McLain singled to center, Newman scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Hernández homered to left center (411 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Turner singled to right, Devers scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Newman doubled to center, Casali scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.1 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +14 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 15–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.