Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4
- Graham AshcraftPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 4Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Barnes scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Barnes doubled to left, Outman scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Taylor homered to center (401 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Peralta singled to center, Betts scored and Freeman scored, Muncy to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Freeman singled to left, Outman scored, Betts to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 45%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- LAD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −19 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +38 Elo | LAD 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 17–1722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 0–2 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.