New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Volpe homered to left center (399 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Cabrera grounded out to second, Rizzo scored, Stanton to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Martinez homered to left center (382 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Higashioka grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored.1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -113
- NYY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +34 Elo | LAD 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 20–93rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.