Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Martinez homered to center (398 feet), Freeman scored and Smith scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored and Taylor scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Outman hit sacrifice fly to left, Heyward scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Abrams singled to right, Meneses scored, Dickerson thrown out at home.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -122
- WSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 17–72nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.