Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Franco grounded out to second, Raley scored, Díaz to second.10–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–10
- 6Taylor homered to right center (406 feet).10–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–10
- 6Martinez homered to left (389 feet).9–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 38–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–10
- 5Thompson homered to center (442 feet).8–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–10
- 4Raley grounded out to first, J. Lowe scored, Siri to second.7–10
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–10
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 37–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–9
- 4Paredes homered to left center (398 feet).7–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 3Díaz singled to left, Raley scored.7–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 3Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Muncy scored.7–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 3Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored, Muncy to third.6–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- LAD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −20 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Josh Fleming: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +31 Elo | TB 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 25–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.