Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna doubled to right, Rosario scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Martinez homered to center (414 feet).8–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Betts singled to left, Rojas scored, Betts to second.7–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 5Murphy grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson out at second.6–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Freeman homered to right (354 feet), Rojas scored and Betts scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Peralta tripled to right, Martinez scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Muncy grounded out to first, Freeman scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Martinez homered to left center (401 feet).1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Rosario homered to right (383 feet), Murphy scored and Riley scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Murphy singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- LAD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +45 Elo | ATL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.