Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Franco singled to center, Walls scored, Raley to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Vargas homered to left center (408 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Freeman doubled to center, Betts scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Betts singled to center, Rojas scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Ramírez homered to right center (385 feet), Franco scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Margot singled to center, Arozarena scored and Bethancourt scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Muncy scored on Glasnow wild pitch.3–0
- 4Muncy scored on Glasnow wild pitch.3–0
- 4Muncy doubled to right, Martinez scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Muncy homered to right center (408 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- LAD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −14 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 25–51st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.