Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martinez homered to left center (405 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 7Muncy singled to right, Betts scored, Smith to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Smith doubled to left, Rojas scored and Betts scored, Freeman to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Heyward homered to right center (380 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Riley doubled to center, Murphy scored on error, Riley safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Rojas.1–1
- 1Riley doubled to center, Murphy scored on error, Riley safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Rojas.1–1
- 1Riley doubled to center, Murphy scored on error, Riley safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Rojas.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Smith singled to center, Betts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- LAD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | LAD: Bobby Miller (no track record yet) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +27 Elo | ATL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 12–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.