Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8Vargas hit a ground rule double, Martinez scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Heyward grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored, Martinez to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Ozuna homered to center (452 feet), Albies scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Betts homered to left (365 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Olson homered to right (456 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +8 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.