Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Siri homered to left (382 feet), Bethancourt scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 8Taylor doubled to left, Vargas scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7B. Lowe reached on infield single to first, Franco scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 4Díaz homered to left (361 feet).2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Bethancourt singled to left, Walls scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Martinez singled to left, Freeman scored, Smith to second.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Franco hit sacrifice fly to right, Raley scored, Siri to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Díaz grounded out to third, Bethancourt scored, Siri to second, Raley to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1J. Lowe singled to center, Franco scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1B. Lowe grounded out to second, Díaz scored, Franco to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Smith singled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- LAD +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −9 | LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 24–51st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.