New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Josh DonaldsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Donaldson homered to left center (418 feet), Stanton scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Betts homered to left (374 feet).2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Stanton homered to center (417 feet).2–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 3Martinez homered to center (413 feet).1–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 2Donaldson homered to left center (446 feet).1–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 1Betts singled to left, Vargas scored, Outman to third.0–6
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Rojas hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Outman singled to center, Martinez scored, Vargas to second, Heyward to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Muncy homered to left center (379 feet), Smith scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Betts homered to left (398 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -112
- NYY +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +22 Elo | LAD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 19–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.