Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman homered to center (399 feet).3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Betts grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rojas scored, Barnes out at second.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Outman scored on Thompson wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Thompson.3–7
- 8Outman scored on Thompson wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Thompson.3–7
- 7Martinez homered to center (416 feet), Muncy scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7García singled to right, Thomas scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Ruiz homered to left (346 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Heyward singled to right, Muncy scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Martinez hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, Muncy to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Muncy hit a ground rule double, Betts scored, Freeman to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Meneses singled to left, Vargas scored, Candelario to second, Thomas to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Heyward homered to center (403 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +2 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +77 Elo | LAD 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 18–72nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.