Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz homered to center (401 feet), Garrett scored.10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 8Betts homered to center (412 feet).8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8García homered to right (370 feet), Ruiz scored and Vargas scored.8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 7Rojas singled to center, Taylor scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Candelario homered to center (405 feet), Meneses scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Muncy walked, Freeman scored, Martinez to second, Smith to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 43–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Candelario singled to right, Meneses scored, Dickerson to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Abrams homered to right center (371 feet).2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Ruiz homered to center (397 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −19 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +50 Elo | LAD 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 19–72nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.