Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson homered to right (420 feet), Fraley scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 3Stephenson homered to right (376 feet), Steer scored.6–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 3Steer singled to center, De La Cruz scored.6–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3India hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored.6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Vargas doubled to left, Martinez scored, Muncy to third.6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Smith homered to right center (358 feet), Freeman scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Vargas homered to center (425 feet).3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1De La Cruz homered to right (458 feet), McLain scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Muncy singled to left, Smith scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Betts homered to left center (373 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -105
- LAD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +3 | LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 16–1723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.