Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McLain singled to center, Fairchild scored, Fraley to second, Casali to third.8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 9Fraley hit by pitch, Hopkins scored, Casali to second, Fairchild to third.8–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 9Casali walked, Steer scored, Fairchild to second, Hopkins to third.8–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 48–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 7Fairchild reached on infield single to shortstop, Steer scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 6India reached on infield single to third, Fraley scored, McLain to third.8–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 5India scored on error, Stephenson safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, De La Cruz safe at third on error.8–4
- 5India scored on error, Stephenson safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, De La Cruz safe at third on error.8–4
- 5India scored on error, Stephenson safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, De La Cruz safe at third on error.8–4
- 5India scored on error, Stephenson safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, De La Cruz safe at third on error.8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 4Freeman homered to center (394 feet), Heyward scored, Rojas scored and Betts scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 4Martinez homered to left (371 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- LAD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +24 Elo | LAD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 15–1724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.