Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve singled to left, Meyers scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 8McCormick homered to left center (392 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8García singled to center, Thomas scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7J. Abreu singled to right, Altuve scored, Bregman to third.0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Maldonado homered to left (372 feet).0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Tucker homered to right (399 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Dubón homered to left (366 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +65 Elo | HOU 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 18–1412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.