Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garrett homered to left (374 feet).4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Acuña Jr. doubled to center, Pillar scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Thomas doubled to left, Vargas scored and Chavis scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to right center (413 feet), Pillar scored.1–5
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 31–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Ozuna homered to left center (426 feet), d'Arnaud scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1García hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -126
- WSH +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.