Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas homered to right (381 feet), Smith scored.11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 9Schwarber homered to left center (402 feet), Clemens scored and Ellis scored.11–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 38–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Ellis homered to center (389 feet), Clemens scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Stott scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 12 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 36–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (391 feet), Marsh scored and Ellis scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Ellis homered to left (398 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Garrett hit sacrifice fly to right, Meneses scored.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -110
- PHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +21 Elo | WSH 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 12–1828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.