Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored, Realmuto to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Realmuto homered to left center (407 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Abrams grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Smith scored, Ruiz out at second.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Ruiz singled to right, Meneses scored, Smith to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Turner doubled to left, Sosa scored, Castellanos to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Harrison singled to left, Realmuto scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -112
- PHI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +32 Elo | WSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.421st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 12–1727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.