Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Canha singled to right, Alonso scored and Baty scored, Vogelbach to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Canha homered to left center (386 feet), Vogelbach scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Sosa homered to left center (375 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −11 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +18 Elo | NYM 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 13–95th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.