Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna homered to left center (416 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Turner doubled to center, Stott scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Marsh singled to left, Castellanos scored and Realmuto scored, Bohm to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–3
- 5Harris II homered to left center (413 feet), Arcia scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Rosario hit sacrifice fly to left, d'Arnaud scored, Ozuna to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Castellanos tripled to right, Stott scored and Turner scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 14–1217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.