Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson hit sacrifice fly to right, Arcia scored, Hilliard to third.5–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 8d'Arnaud singled to left, Albies scored and Ozuna scored, Arcia to second.5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Schwarber doubled to right, Harper scored, Castellanos thrown out at home.5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Riley homered to left center (458 feet).4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Harper homered to right center (445 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Harris II hit sacrifice fly to left, Ozuna scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Ozuna homered to right center (387 feet).3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Stott doubled to center, Marsh scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Bohm homered to center (433 feet), Realmuto scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Riley homered to left center (459 feet), Olson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Dylan Dodd: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 13–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.